New challenges for companies in a multipolar world
Global companies today are under pressure from growing uncertainties: political instability, military tensions, sudden regime changes or protectionist trade policies jeopardize supply chains and investments. In this dynamic risk landscape, traditional risk analyses are often too slow or too reactive.
An effective solution: Open Source Intelligence (OSINT). The use of publicly accessible information for early risk detection is rapidly gaining in importance – especially in procurement, logistics, compliance and corporate security.
What is OSINT and why is it so valuable?
OSINT refers to the structured collection, analysis and interpretation of freely available data sources – including:
- News portals and analyst reports
- Social media platforms (Twitter/X, Telegram, TikTok)
- Satellite images & geodata
- Databases for political and economic events
- Ship and flight data (e.g. MarineTraffic, Flightradar24)
In combination with modern analysis tools and artificial intelligence, patterns can be identified that indicate impending risks – long before they become officially known.
OSINT in practice: early warning of geopolitical escalations
Example 1: Supply chain disruption due to social unrest
A global electronics company analyzed Twitter data in Southeast Asia and identified a sharp increase in strike announcements in supplier regions. The company was able to activate alternative procurement sources even before the protests began.
Example 2: Political instability in commodity countries
With the help of OSINT, a commodities trader recognized an accumulation of dissident reports and protest dynamics in a Central African exporting country. The situation escalated within a few weeks. Thanks to early warning, important exports were secured in advance.
Advantages of OSINT in risk management
- Shorten response time: Decisions are based on real-time data.
- Act proactively instead of reactively: Recognize risks before they take effect.
- Improve strategic planning: Better scenario management and more resilient supply chains.
- Reduce costs: Early action prevents damage.
Integration into existing company processes
The use of OSINT is not a one-off project, but a continuous process. Successful companies implement OSINT-based early warning systems in the following areas:
- Purchasing & supplier management: assessment of country-specific risks
- Compliance & export control: monitoring sensitive regions
- Corporate security: protection of personnel and locations abroad
- Reputation management: real-time monitoring of media sentiment
Challenges during implementation
Despite its potential, OSINT also presents challenges:
- Flood of data: relevance filtering is crucial
- Misinformation & disinformation: verification is mandatory
- Data protection & ethics: legal boundaries must be observed
- Know-how & capacity: training of internal teams or external support required
Conclusion: recognize early, take targeted action
Geopolitical risks cannot be prevented – but their impact can be minimized. Companies that actively use OSINT gain room for maneuver, speed of response and strategic clarity. In a world where uncertainty has become the norm, early warning becomes a competitive advantage.
Recommended action: Start with a pilot project in risk management or purchasing, evaluate the initial results and scale up OSINT-supported risk analyses throughout the company.
